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农林牧渔行业月度点评:关注生物育种产业化进程,重视后周期板块机遇
财信证券·2025-03-07 07:54

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2][49]. Core Insights - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry underperformed the market in February, with a 0.20% increase compared to the 2.16% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and 1.91% in the CSI 300 Index [12][8]. - The report highlights that the overall valuation of the industry has a safety margin, with quality pig farming companies expected to maintain profitability in 2025 [49][50]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring production capacity in pig farming, as the central government's policies aim to stabilize production [50][52]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In February, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index ranked 25th among 31 industry indices, with a year-to-date decline of 2.79% [12][8]. - The sub-sectors of fruit and vegetable processing, comprehensive III, and grain and oil processing showed positive growth, while pet food and poultry farming lagged behind [13][8]. Pig Farming - The average price of external three-way cross pigs in February was 14.73 yuan/kg, down 6.80% month-on-month but up 2.80% year-on-year [20][21]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs was approximately 37.35 yuan/head, reflecting a significant decrease from the previous month [20][21]. Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broilers in February was 6.05 yuan/kg, down 18.34% month-on-month and 24.67% year-on-year [34][36]. - The report anticipates that the supply of white feather broilers will remain sufficient, with potential price support as the macro economy recovers [52][49]. Feed and Animal Health - The report suggests that the feed sector's performance is expected to improve marginally, with a focus on the domestic feed leader, Haida Group [53][49]. - The animal health sector's profits are closely linked to pig prices and stock levels, with expectations for gradual recovery as pig stocks stabilize [53][49]. Seed Industry - The report stresses the critical role of seeds in ensuring national food security, with ongoing commercialization of genetically modified seeds [54][49]. - Companies with strong research capabilities in seed breeding are expected to gain market share, with recommendations to focus on leading firms like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [54][49]. Pet Food - The domestic pet food market is projected to grow, driven by increasing pet ownership and consumer demand for quality [56][49]. - Companies such as Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are highlighted as key players in the pet food sector [56][49].