宏观观察2025年第09期（总第581期）：2025年《政府工作报告》学习与解读＊——宏观政策更加积极有为，助力实现5%左右增长目标

Economic Growth Target - The 2025 economic growth target is set at around 5%, balancing needs and possibilities, considering domestic and international conditions[6] - Achieving this target is crucial for stabilizing employment, as an increase of 1% in GDP generates approximately 230-260 million new urban jobs[6] Macroeconomic Policies - Fiscal policy is significantly strengthened, with the deficit rate raised to around 4%, the highest since 2008, indicating a strong commitment to economic recovery[9] - The broad deficit rate for 2025 is projected at around 8.4%, up from 6.6% in 2024, reflecting increased fiscal support[9] Consumer Spending - The report emphasizes the need to boost consumption, with a focus on enhancing residents' income and reducing burdens, particularly for low-income groups[11] - A new policy to support the replacement of old consumer goods is expected to allocate 300 billion yuan for this initiative, doubling the support from 2024[13] New Quality Productivity - High-tech manufacturing value added grew by 8.9% in 2024, outpacing overall industrial growth by 3.1 percentage points, highlighting the importance of new quality productivity[15] - The report outlines the need for a robust innovation system, with enterprises accounting for 77.7% of R&D funding in 2023[16] Foreign Trade and Investment - The report acknowledges challenges in foreign trade due to rising tariffs, particularly from the U.S., which has imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods[22] - It advocates for the development of cross-border e-commerce and new offshore trade models to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance trade resilience[24][25] Real Estate Market - The report stresses the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with policies aimed at releasing rigid and improvement housing demand[29] - The government plans to expand the scale of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, potentially driving sales of new homes significantly[30]