津巴布韦货币政策及汇率政策扭曲的财政成本

Core Insights - The report identifies the fiscal costs of Zimbabwe's monetary and exchange rate policy distortions, highlighting three main channels through which these distortions affect tax revenue: the Oliveira-Tanzi effect, the impact of an overvalued official exchange rate on import duties, and the weakening of overall tax revenue due to informalization [9][11][34]. - It is estimated that from 2020 to 2023, high inflation and exchange rate distortions resulted in a loss of over $3 billion to the Zimbabwean treasury, indicating that stabilizing prices and eliminating exchange rate distortions could significantly enhance government revenue and help close the fiscal financing gap [9][11]. Group 1: Overview of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Distortions - Zimbabwe's macroeconomic instability is largely driven by high inflation, exchange rate distortions, and a challenging business environment, which have increased business costs and led to insufficient investment and a rise in informal activities [11][12]. - The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) has engaged in quasi-fiscal operations (QFOs) that involve printing money to finance government and state-owned enterprises, contributing to rapid money supply growth and subsequent inflation [18][19]. - The report notes that the RBZ's actions have led to a significant increase in the money supply, with reserve money growth exceeding 1800% in 2023, and an inflation rate around 700% [11][12]. Group 2: Channels of Fiscal Cost - The first channel, the Oliveira-Tanzi effect, indicates that inflation-related payment delays reduce the real value of tax revenues, leading to significant losses in government income [34][38]. - The second channel involves the loss of customs revenue due to an overvalued official exchange rate, which results in lower import duty collections [34][45]. - The third channel highlights how exchange rate controls and high parallel market premiums push businesses into the informal sector, further eroding formal tax revenues [34][30]. Group 3: Methodology and Data - The report employs a multi-method approach to quantify the fiscal impact of monetary and exchange rate policy distortions on government revenue, focusing on the period from 2020 to 2023 [36][37]. - Data sources include monthly tax revenue figures, inflation rates, and informal sector size, with a particular emphasis on the relationship between inflation and the informal economy [36][47]. - The analysis utilizes a vector autoregression (VAR) model to predict the impact of inflation on the informal economy, allowing for a nuanced understanding of the relationship between these variables [46][47].