风险偏好短期下降

Macro Economic Insights - China's economic activity shows signs of recovery, with housing sales and durable consumption rebounding, leading to a GDP growth forecast slightly above 5% for the first half of 2025[13] - High-frequency economic activity index increased from 0.94 in Q3 2024 to approximately 1.05 in Q4 2024, indicating a positive trend[13] - In January-February 2025, new home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 3% year-on-year, contrasting with a 11.5% increase in Q4 2024[14] Technology Sector Outlook - The DeepSeek trend is expected to increase demand for computing power, benefiting the computing industry chain, including chip design and manufacturing[1] - Recommendations include companies like Shengyi Technology (生益科技, 600183 CH) and Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创, 300308 CH) within the computing power supply chain[1] - AI server demand is projected to grow significantly, with major North American and domestic companies increasing capital expenditures for 2025[2] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector remains optimistic, with three main investment themes: AI, self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain, and high dividend defensive strategies[2] - The introduction of low-cost AI models is expected to drive domestic computing power demand significantly, benefiting companies like Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创, 300308 CH) and Northern Huachuang (北方华创, 002371 CH)[2] Internet and Software Services - The market is reassessing the growth potential of internet companies, focusing on their technology attributes rather than just consumer aspects[4] - Companies like Kuaishou (快手, 1024 HK) and Alibaba (BABA US) are expected to benefit from AI-related growth catalysts[4] Consumer Sector - The essential consumer sector is expected to remain resilient, with companies like Nongfu Spring (农夫山泉, 9633 HK) and China Resources Beverage (华润饮料, 2460 HK) recommended for investment due to their defensive nature[4] - The optional consumer sector shows signs of improvement, with brands like Anta (安踏, 2020 HK) and Luckin Coffee (瑞幸咖啡, LKNCY US) recommended for potential growth[5] Insurance Sector - The new business value (NBV) for insurance companies is expected to return to normal growth rates, with significant increases projected for companies like New China Life (新华, 69%) and China Pacific Insurance (太保, 36%) in 2025[6] - The insurance sector is anticipated to benefit from a stable investment environment and improved profitability in the coming year[6] Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization, with new home sales contracts declining by only 6% year-on-year, better than the expected 10%[6] - The market sentiment is improving, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing market confidence and boosting sales[6]