房地产：~70%概率二季度板块受提振，建议增配优质标的

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate sector, with a recommendation to increase allocation to quality stocks within the sector due to a high probability of positive performance in Q2 2025 [1][21]. Core Insights - The report indicates a ~70% probability that the real estate sector will be positively impacted in Q2 2025, driven by favorable sales data and potential policy support [1][21]. - Key factors contributing to the optimistic outlook include improved sentiment in the market, proactive regulatory measures, and a recovering financing environment [20][21]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales data for January and February showed stability, with new home transaction area in 30 cities increasing by 1% year-on-year, and second-hand home transactions in 16 cities rising by 39% year-on-year [2][7][8]. - The new home subscription index has been rising since the Lunar New Year, indicating a potential increase in sales for March [15][20]. Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures in maintaining buyer confidence, especially in light of potential seasonal sales declines in Q2 [20][21]. - The analysis suggests that the likelihood of policy intervention is high if sales decline exceeds expectations, which could further support the market [22][25]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on quality stocks that are likely to benefit from the recovery in the real estate market, including companies like Beike (BEKE US), China Resources Land (1109 HK), and Longfor Group (960 HK) [29][30]. - The report highlights the importance of companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and those in property management services as potential beneficiaries in the current market environment [29][30].