策略观点：风险偏好短期下降

Strategy Insights - Short-term risk appetite is expected to decline due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic factors [2][4][19] - The emergence of DeepSeek is anticipated to increase the demand for computing power, leading to significant growth in usage due to reduced resource costs [1][2] Macro Economic Overview - China's economy shows signs of localized improvement, with a rebound in real estate, durable consumption, and commodity exports [2][13] - The GDP growth rate is projected to be slightly above 5% in the first half of the year, supported by improved consumer sentiment [13][18] Technology Sector - The technology sector is expected to outperform the market, driven by a recovery in global smartphone and PC demand, AI innovations, and increased capital expenditure from major players [2][4] - Key investment themes include the acceleration of AI applications, demand for AI servers, and advancements in smart driving technologies [2][4] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector remains optimistic, with three main investment themes: AI, self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain, and high dividend defensive strategies [2][4] - The introduction of low-cost AI models is expected to boost domestic demand for computing power and enhance investment returns in AI [2][4] Internet Sector - The market is beginning to reassess the growth potential of internet companies, focusing on their technology attributes rather than just consumption characteristics [4] - Key stocks to watch include Trip.com, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Tencent, which are expected to benefit from AI-related growth catalysts [4][11] Healthcare Sector - The healthcare sector is poised for valuation recovery in 2025, supported by improved domestic drug pricing policies and macroeconomic conditions [2][4] - Recommended stocks include Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and WuXi AppTec, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [4][11] Consumer Goods - The essential consumer goods sector is expected to remain resilient, with companies like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage showing strong performance [4][11] - The beauty and skincare sector is also seeing growth, with domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu gaining market share [4][11] Automotive Sector - The new energy vehicle market is recovering, with sales expected to rise significantly in the coming months [5][11] - Recommended stocks include Geely and XPeng Motors, which are well-positioned to capitalize on technological advancements [5][11] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector shows optimism, with contract sales expected to perform better than previously anticipated [5][11] - Key players to watch include China Resources Land and Longfor Group, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [5][11] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is expected to see a return to normal growth rates, with significant increases in new business value anticipated for major insurers [5][11] - Recommended stocks include China Pacific Insurance and AIA Group, which are expected to benefit from favorable market dynamics [5][11] Capital Goods - The capital goods sector is expected to benefit from seasonal demand and government initiatives, particularly in the construction machinery segment [5][11] - Recommended stocks include Zoomlion and SANY Heavy Industry, which are well-positioned for growth [5][11]