工作论文：增值税改革在津巴布韦的财政和分配影响

Core Insights - The report analyzes the fiscal and distributional impacts of VAT reform in Zimbabwe, emphasizing the importance of domestic revenue mobilization to create fiscal space and support macroeconomic stability [10][12][50] - The proposed VAT changes are expected to increase VAT revenue by 0.88% of GDP, but they may also lead to a 1.4 percentage point increase in poverty and a 0.14 percentage point rise in inequality [10][50] - The report suggests that any VAT reform must be accompanied by compensatory mechanisms targeting poorer households to mitigate adverse effects [10][14][50] VAT Structure and Proposed Changes - VAT has been a significant revenue source in Zimbabwe since 2009, surpassing income tax as the main contributor to government revenue [16][17] - The current VAT system includes a standard rate of 15%, with specific rates for certain goods, and the government plans to limit VAT exemptions and zero rates primarily to exports [18][22] - The 2024 budget proposes moving many previously exempt basic goods to the standard rate, which could enhance revenue but may adversely affect low-income households [22][25] Data and Methodology - The analysis utilizes data from the 2017 Poverty, Income, Consumption, and Expenditure Survey (PICES) and employs a fiscal impact analysis framework to assess the effects of VAT reform on household distribution [26][33] - The VAT gap is calculated using a supply and use table (SUT) to estimate the difference between potential VAT revenue and actual collections, highlighting both policy and compliance gaps [47][48] Results and Implications - The current VAT efficiency ratio in Zimbabwe has declined from 0.37 in 2012 to 0.29 in 2022, indicating significant policy and compliance gaps [47][48] - The report estimates that the policy gap accounts for 76% of the total VAT gap, suggesting that improving compliance could yield substantial revenue increases [48][49] - The proposed VAT reforms are projected to reduce the VAT gap from 5.62% of GDP in 2022 to an estimated 5.36% in 2024, with a corresponding decrease in the policy gap [50][51]