天然气行业深度研究：LNG迎扩能高峰，美欧亚气价差或收窄

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong rating for the oil and petrochemical sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [1]. Core Insights - The global LNG trade is experiencing a shift, with long-term contracts accounting for 61.1% of the total trade volume in 2023, while spot trading represents 35.2% [3][10]. - The pricing model for natural gas is evolving, with North America's GOG (gas-on-gas) pricing model showing more advantages compared to the OPE (oil price-linked) model in Northeast Asia [8][10]. - The report anticipates a peak in global LNG supply capacity from 2025 to 2028, primarily driven by new projects in the U.S., Qatar, and Canada [5][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Natural Gas Pricing Models and Price Trends - The current pricing model favors North America's GOG over Northeast Asia's OPE due to market conditions [8]. - The support price for natural gas is estimated between $2.5 and $3.5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), based on the breakeven prices of high-cost gas fields in the U.S. [11]. - The report forecasts a stable increase in U.S. HH gas prices, while global LNG supply is expected to increase and prices to decrease [21]. 2. Global Natural Gas Supply Structure and Expected Increment - The U.S. is projected to have significant supply elasticity and capacity for production increases, with large-scale LNG projects set to come online soon [5]. - China's unconventional gas production is steadily increasing, alongside a rise in imports of pipeline gas from Russia [5]. - The global LNG market is entering a phase of increased production capacity, with a peak expected in the next 3-5 years [5]. 3. Changes in Russia-Europe Natural Gas Trade Flow - Europe has significantly reduced its dependency on Russian gas, increasing imports of U.S. LNG instead [5]. - The operational status of Russian gas pipelines to Europe has largely ceased, with only a few Eastern European countries still importing Russian pipeline gas [5]. 4. Natural Gas Consumption Status and Outlook in China, the U.S., and Europe - In Europe, gas consumption for power generation is declining, and residential gas demand remains uncertain [5]. - The rapid development of data centers in the U.S. is expected to create new growth in electricity consumption from gas [5]. - In China, the penetration of LNG heavy trucks is driving an increase in urban gas demand [5]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gas companies with diversified raw material sources, stable performance, and high dividend ratios, such as China Gas, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [5].