Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 18.00 to HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% [1][2]. Core Insights - The revenue is expected to achieve low double-digit growth in 2025, driven by prior investments that enhance revenue growth. Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize as the company continues to invest in fulfillment efficiency and market expansion [2][6]. - The report has adjusted the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 upwards by 3.8% and 6.0%, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2025 revenue is projected at RMB 202,053 million, up from RMB 194,624 million, marking a 3.8% increase [5]. - The company expects a revenue increase of 11% year-on-year in 2025, supported by external business growth [6]. - Profitability Metrics: - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 8,384 million, a 6.0% increase from the previous estimate of RMB 7,910 million [5]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to remain stable at 4.1% for 2025 [5][6]. - Cost Structure: - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 22,486 million, with a gross margin of 11.1% [5]. - Operating expenses are projected to increase, reflecting ongoing investments in personnel and automation [6]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 20.78% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 102,714.38 million [4]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 16.34 and HKD 7.55, respectively, indicating significant price movement over the past year [4].
京东物流：前期投入带动收入加速增长，预计2025年收入双位数增长-20250308