在物流行业"时效战"与"科技战"并行的当下，跨越速运凭借其独特的战略布局与创新能力，正以"别人 有的我也有，别人没有的我更强"的姿态，重新定义高端物流服务的价值标杆。本文基于公开信息与行 业逻辑，深度解析跨越速运的差异化优势，及其与京东物流协同后的综合竞争力。 一、时效壁垒：航空网络与动态路由的双重护城河 四、协同效应：资源整合下的全域竞争力 2025年双方优势融合进入新阶段。跨越速运获得京东的仓储网络、末端配送及国际业务支持。例如，京 东全球"2-3日达"时效圈与跨越的航空网结合，可共同拓展跨境物流市场；而跨越的干线资源亦能优化 京东的供应链成本。这种"1+1>2"的协同，使跨越速运在保持科技与时效核心优势的同时，兼具京东的 生态赋能，形成对手难以复制的综合服务体系。 跨越速运自2007年成立之初便锚定"限时速运"赛道，通过构建全国四大航空枢纽空侧，紧密连接了京津 冀、长三角、珠三角和成渝双城经济圈；实现跨省"最快8小时门到门送达"。其独创的"动态路由"系 统，利用大数据与AI算力实时优化运输路径，节省20%场地资源并提升30%货量运营能力，将B端客户 对时效与稳定性的需求推向极致。相较之下，京东物流虽在仓 ...

2025 年 3 月 11 日 | 目标价: HK$23.28 | 当前股价: HK$13.20 | | --- | --- | | 股价上行/下行空间 | +76% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) | 16.84/7.46 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 8,429 | | 当前发行数量(百万股) | 4,963 | | 三个月平均日交易額 | 21 | | (US$mn) | | | 流通盘占比 (%) | 26 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | 京东科技集团 | 64 | | 天作之合有限公司 | 5 | | Jungle Den Limited | 3 | | 按 2025 年 3 月 7 日收市数据 | | | 资料来源: FactSet | | 主要调整 | | 现值 | 原值 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 评级 | 买入 | 买入 | N/A | | 目标价 (HK$) | 23.28 | 22.90 | 2% | | 2025E EPS (RMB) | 1.18 | 1.07 | 10% | | 2026E EPS (RMB) | 1.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$23.28, representing a potential upside of 76% from the current price of HK$13.20 [1][9]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported strong performance in 2024, with revenue growth of 9.7% and a significant increase in adjusted net profit by 187%, exceeding management's initial guidance [6][7]. - Despite the strong 2024 results, management's conservative guidance for 2025 suggests low double-digit revenue growth and single-digit adjusted net profit growth, which has led to market dissatisfaction and a subsequent drop in stock price [7][8]. - The current valuation of JD Logistics appears attractive, trading at 10.6 times the 2025 P/E ratio, which is lower compared to peers in the logistics sector [8][15]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was RMB 182,838 million, with a projected revenue of RMB 205,510 million for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.4% [10][20]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 6,867 million, with an expected increase to RMB 7,353 million in 2025, indicating a growth of 7.1% [10][20]. - The gross profit margin improved from 7.6% in 2023 to 10.2% in 2024, with a projected margin of 10.7% for 2025 [10][20]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report has adjusted the earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026, increasing revenue estimates by 7.3% and 9.0% respectively, based on the strong performance in 2024 [13][14]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025 is now projected at RMB 1.18, up from RMB 1.07, reflecting a 10.5% increase [14][15]. Valuation Analysis - The target price of HK$23.28 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, maintaining a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [15][16]. - The current stock price is seen as having limited downside potential due to the conservative guidance and low market expectations [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics [2][5] Core Insights - JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 182.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, and a net profit of 7.09 billion yuan, a significant increase of 507.2% [3] - The company’s gross profit rose from 12.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.7 billion yuan in 2024, with the gross margin improving from 7.6% to 10.2% [5] - The integration into the Taobao and Tmall platforms is expected to broaden the customer base and leverage the advantages of integrated supply chain solutions [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was 182.84 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.73% compared to 2023 [11] - The net profit for 2024 was 6.20 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth rate of 905.79% [11] - The company’s operating costs increased by 6.6% to 164.1 billion yuan, while the cost-to-income ratio decreased from 92.4% in 2023 to 89.8% in 2024 [4] - The average revenue per external customer slightly decreased by 4.8% to 400,000 yuan [3] Customer Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers accounted for approximately 69.9% of total revenue, with external customer revenue growing by 9.6% to 127.78 billion yuan [3] - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers was 32.29 billion yuan, a growth of 2.8%, with the number of customers increasing from 74,700 to 80,700 [3] Future Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be 6.63 billion yuan, 7.36 billion yuan, and 7.94 billion yuan respectively [5][11]

公 司 研 究 京东物流（02618.HK）：规模效应逐 步显现，盈利能力显著提升 2025 年 3 月 11 日 推荐/维持 京东物流 公司报告 公司盈利预测及投资评级：随着规模效应的逐步释放，我们预计公司业绩未来 几年还将处于增长期。预测公司 25-27 年归母净利润（标准报表口径,非调整 后）分别为 66.33 亿、73.58 亿和 79.40 亿，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：外部客户拓展不及预期、行业政策出现重大变化、资本开支超预期、 京东商城 GMV 增速不及预期等。 公司简介： 事件：2024 年京东物流实现营收 1828.37 亿元，同比增长 9.7%，实现净利润 70.88 亿，同比增长 507.2%，实现归母净利润 61.98 亿元；实现调整后净利 润 79.17 亿元，同比增长 186.8%。24 年 Q4，公司实现调整后净利润 22.26 亿元，同比增长 23.4%。 内外部客户收入皆稳健增长，外部客户收入占比稳定在 70%左右：公司 2024 年营收同比增长 9.7%，其中来自京东集团收入 550.6 亿，同比增长 10.0%， 来自外部客户的收入 1277.8 亿，同比增长 9.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics [2][5] Core Insights - JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 182.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, and a net profit of 7.09 billion yuan, a significant increase of 507.2% [3] - The company’s gross profit rose from 12.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.7 billion yuan in 2024, with the gross margin improving from 7.6% to 10.2% [4][5] - The integration into the Taobao and Tmall platforms is expected to broaden the customer base and leverage the advantages of an integrated supply chain [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was 182.84 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.73% compared to 2023 [11] - The net profit for 2024 was 6.20 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth of 905.79% from the previous year [11] - The company’s operating costs increased by 6.6% to 164.1 billion yuan, while the cost-to-income ratio improved from 92.4% in 2023 to 89.8% in 2024 [4][11] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 6.63 billion, 7.36 billion, and 7.94 billion yuan respectively [5][11] Customer Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers accounted for approximately 70% of total revenue, with external customer revenue growing by 9.6% to 127.78 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - The number of integrated supply chain customers increased from 74,700 to 80,700, although the average revenue per customer slightly decreased by 4.8% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Logistics is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 17.80 [8][9]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a revenue increase of 9.7% year-on-year to RMB 182.8 billion for 2024, with a significant rise in net profit to RMB 6.2 billion from RMB 0.62 billion in the previous year, driven by increased business volume and capacity utilization [1][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from enhanced logistics capabilities and product competitiveness, particularly in the integrated supply chain logistics services, which will support further business growth [1][5]. - The company has accelerated its overseas integrated supply chain business development, establishing over 100 bonded warehouses and direct mail warehouses across 19 countries and regions [4]. Revenue Performance - External customer revenue reached RMB 127.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, accounting for 70% of total revenue, while revenue from JD Group was RMB 55.1 billion, up 10.0% [2]. - The number of external customers grew by 8.0% to 80,803, although the average revenue per customer (ARPC) decreased by 4.8% to RMB 400,156 [2]. Profitability and Margin Expansion - For 2024, JD Logistics achieved a gross profit of RMB 18.7 billion and a non-IFRS net profit of RMB 7.9 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 47.4% and 186.8%, respectively [3]. - The gross margin and non-IFRS net margin improved by 2.6 percentage points and 2.7 percentage points to 10.2% and 4.3%, respectively, due to increased business scale and reduced unit costs [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in logistics infrastructure to enhance fulfillment capabilities and competitiveness, which may temporarily impact profit margins [5]. - Net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly reduced by 5% and 9% to RMB 7.14 billion and RMB 8.1 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at RMB 9.38 billion [5]. Valuation Metrics - The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 205.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.19% [7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.07, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13.38 times [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics [2][6] Core Views - JD Logistics reported a revenue of 182.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, with Q4 revenue growth returning to double digits at 10.4% [6][7] - The revenue growth is expected to accelerate in 2025 due to improved efficiency and the implementation of new policies and promotional activities [6][7] - The company achieved a significant increase in adjusted net profit, reaching 7.917 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 186.8% [6][7] - The report highlights the company's focus on balancing revenue and profit growth, with an adjusted net profit margin of 4.3% in 2024 [6][7] - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards, with expected adjusted net profits of 8.469 billion yuan and 9.373 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a focus on revenue growth and investment [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected revenue (in million yuan) for the years 2023 to 2027: - 2023: 166,625 - 2024: 182,838 - 2025E: 207,654 - 2026E: 232,112 - 2027E: 255,738 [3][7] - Adjusted net profit (in million yuan) for the years 2023 to 2027: - 2023: 2,761 - 2024: 7,917 - 2025E: 8,469 - 2026E: 9,373 - 2027E: 10,796 [3][7] - Earnings per share (in yuan) for the years 2023 to 2027: - 2023: 0.13 - 2024: 0.42 - 2025E: 1.19 - 2026E: 1.27 - 2027E: 1.41 [3][7] Market Data - Closing price as of March 7, 2025: 13.20 HKD - Market capitalization: 87.699 billion HKD [4][6] - 52-week high/low: 16.84/7.46 HKD [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 18.00 to HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% [1][2]. Core Insights - The revenue is expected to achieve low double-digit growth in 2025, driven by prior investments that enhance revenue growth. Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize as the company continues to invest in fulfillment efficiency and market expansion [2][6]. - The report has adjusted the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 upwards by 3.8% and 6.0%, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025 revenue is projected at RMB 202,053 million, up from RMB 194,624 million, marking a 3.8% increase [5]. - The company expects a revenue increase of 11% year-on-year in 2025, supported by external business growth [6]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 8,384 million, a 6.0% increase from the previous estimate of RMB 7,910 million [5]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to remain stable at 4.1% for 2025 [5][6]. - **Cost Structure**: - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 22,486 million, with a gross margin of 11.1% [5]. - Operating expenses are projected to increase, reflecting ongoing investments in personnel and automation [6]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 20.78% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 102,714.38 million [4]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 16.34 and HKD 7.55, respectively, indicating significant price movement over the past year [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 182.8 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 10% year-on-year growth, with a significant increase in net profit of 906% to 6.2 billion RMB [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to the national subsidy policy and an increase in sales from JD Retail, with integrated supply chain customer revenue growing by 7.2% [1]. - The company has successfully reduced costs and improved efficiency, leading to a gross profit of 18.7 billion RMB, a 47% increase, and a gross margin improvement of 2.6 percentage points to 10.2% [2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 52.1 billion RMB, a 10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.73 billion RMB, up 66% [1]. - The operating costs for 2024 were 164.1 billion RMB, a 6.6% increase, which is lower than the revenue growth rate [2]. - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 7.1 billion RMB, 8.4 billion RMB, and 9.7 billion RMB respectively [3]. Operational Strategy - The company has upgraded its digital supply chain technology, integrating AI and big data to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [3]. - The acquisition of the remaining 36.43% stake in Kuayue Express aims to achieve full control, enhancing resource synergy and operational efficiency [3]. Financial Projections - The projected revenue for 2025 is 193.3 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 5.7% [5]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 7.1 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 13.9% [5].