Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently in a comfortable bottom configuration zone, with expectations of stronger supply-side reforms [3][6] - Despite facing supply-demand imbalances and declining overall industry profits, the steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase due to supportive factors such as real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, and high steel exports [7] - The industry is anticipated to experience structural improvements in supply, benefiting from policies aimed at eliminating inefficient production capacity and enhancing high-end production supply [6][7] Supply - As of March 7, the average daily pig iron output was 2.3051 million tons, an increase of 2.57 thousand tons week-on-week [18] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 86.5%, up by 0.96 percentage points week-on-week [18] - The total output of five major steel products was 7.303 million tons, a decrease of 53.4 thousand tons week-on-week [18][19] Demand - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.531 million tons, an increase of 258.3 thousand tons week-on-week [24] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 101 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.46 thousand tons week-on-week [24] - The net financing amount of local government special bonds was 1.6902 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.83% [24] Inventory - The social inventory of five major steel products was 13.395 million tons, a decrease of 22.1 thousand tons week-on-week [32] - The internal inventory of five major steel products was 5.208 million tons, a decrease of 166.2 thousand tons week-on-week [32] Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,565.4 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 25.85 yuan/ton [41] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,736.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 33.78 yuan/ton [41] - The profit per ton for rebar using electric arc furnace was -241.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.9 yuan/ton week-on-week [47] Company Valuation - Notable companies include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shandong Steel, which are expected to benefit from structural investment opportunities due to their advanced equipment and environmental standards [7][61]
供给侧改革预期趋强,板块依旧处于底部配置舒适区钢铁
Xinda Securities·2025-03-08 18:32