航运船舶市场系列（十二）：集运船司涨价意愿较强，观察后续停航情况

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Maersk announced a significant increase in freight rates for routes from the Far East to Europe and the Mediterranean, with rates for major Asian ports to Rotterdam rising to $2,600/TEU and $4,000/FEU, effectively doubling the previous rates [2] - Shipping companies are actively raising rates to support long-term contract prices, especially in the context of a seasonal demand recovery expected in March and April [2] - The current shipping market is experiencing a traditional off-peak season, with the SCFI composite freight index dropping to 1,515.29 points, a 5% decrease week-on-week, and a 39.5% decline since the beginning of 2025 [2] - There is a notable "rate inversion" in the European line, where spot market prices are lower than the long-term contract prices, increasing the risk of contract defaults by shippers [2] - The expectation of a seasonal recovery in demand in March and April is anticipated to drive freight rates up, as factories resume operations post-Chinese New Year [2] - The delay in the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea is expected to support the bottom of European line freight rates due to increased transportation costs and reduced effective capacity [2] - In April, the European line capacity remains sufficient, with an average weekly capacity of 316,000 TEU, and a maximum of 2 blank sailings per week, which is 120% of the same period in 2024 [2][7] Summary by Sections - Market Performance: Shipping companies are showing a strong willingness to raise prices, with several companies issuing price increase notices for European routes [2] - Demand Recovery: March and April typically see a seasonal recovery in demand, with expectations of increased freight volumes on European lines [2][4] - Capacity and Pricing Dynamics: The European line capacity is adequate, and the potential for price increases exists if demand rebounds alongside any increase in blank sailings [2][7]