美国2月非农就业数据点评：美国就业市场或将进入“颠簸期”

Employment Data Summary - In February, the U.S. added 151,000 non-farm jobs, slightly up from January's revised figure of 125,000 but below the market expectation of 160,000[9][10] - The three-month average for job additions is 199,700, indicating a slight downward trend compared to previous values[10][11] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, exceeding expectations, while the labor force participation rate decreased to approximately 62.4%[3][15] Labor Market Dynamics - The increase in permanent unemployment and re-employment rates suggests a continued decline in the labor market, with temporary unemployment and voluntary departures decreasing[19][15] - Average hourly earnings rose to $35.93, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, but the month-on-month growth rate showed a slight decline[23][19] - The leisure and hospitality sector has seen job losses for two consecutive months, indicating potential weaknesses in the service industry[11][14] Future Outlook - The employment market may continue to weaken due to federal government layoffs and the impact of illegal immigration policies, which are expected to have a negative effect on job availability[35][39] - The government layoffs have not fully impacted the February employment data, suggesting potential future job losses[35][36] - The ongoing deportation of illegal immigrants, although currently below expectations, may increase and further strain the labor market[38][39] Economic Implications - The February employment data is unlikely to significantly influence the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates[39] - Asset prices, including U.S. stocks and bonds, may remain under pressure due to concerns over economic momentum weakening[39][40]