KORRUN(300577) 中国银河·2025-03-09 07:49Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the bag industry, leveraging both B2B and B2C business models to drive growth. The B2B segment includes partnerships with renowned brands like Nike and Uniqlo, while the B2C segment focuses on its own brands, "90 Points" and "Xiaomi" [8][12]. - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projections of 32.05% to 38.49% for 2024, and a substantial increase in net profit, expected to grow by 220.01% to 263.25% [12][22]. - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, with 65.13% of its production based outside China, particularly in Indonesia and India, to capitalize on lower labor costs and market opportunities [12][22]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2026 are as follows: - 2023: 3,104.90 million CNY - 2024: 4,099.86 million CNY (growth of 32.04%) - 2025: 5,322.46 million CNY (growth of 29.82%) - 2026: 6,099.15 million CNY (growth of 14.59%) [3]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 115.62 million CNY - 2024: 390.46 million CNY (growth of 237.70%) - 2025: 372.71 million CNY (decline of 4.55%) - 2026: 452.66 million CNY (growth of 21.45%) [3]. - The company’s EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 1.63 CNY, 1.55 CNY, and 1.89 CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.96, 14.62, and 12.04 [3][12]. Business Model and Market Position - The company operates under a dual business model, focusing on both OEM and ODM production, with a strong emphasis on ODM, which allows for greater design flexibility and innovation [48][51]. - The B2B segment has shown robust growth, with revenue increasing from 445 million CNY in 2015 to 2,444 million CNY in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 23.73% [26][28]. - The B2C segment, while impacted by the pandemic, is recovering with strategic adjustments, including cost reduction and efficiency improvements [12][22]. Market Trends - The overall bag market in China is experiencing a recovery, with a retail scale growth of 12.60% in 2023 compared to 2022, reaching 234.92 billion CNY [35][40]. - The domestic tourism market is also rebounding, which is expected to drive demand for bags, as travel-related spending increases [44][45]. Management and Governance - The company has a concentrated and stable shareholding structure, with the founder holding 51.23% of the shares, ensuring strong control and strategic direction [24][25]. - The management team is experienced, with backgrounds in leading IT companies, enhancing operational efficiency and strategic execution [24].