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行业研究——周报:大炼化周报:价格表现强于成本端,聚烯烃价差明显改善
Xinda Securities·2025-03-09 07:53

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" based on the performance of the refining sector and the improvement in price spreads for polyolefins [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that domestic and international refining project price spreads have shown improvement, with domestic spreads at 2475.37 CNY/ton, up by 14.50 CNY/ton (+0.59%) week-on-week, while international spreads are at 1068.01 CNY/ton, up by 5.75 CNY/ton (+0.54%) [2][1]. - Brent crude oil averaged 70.72 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 4.27% week-on-week, influenced by various bearish factors including increased supply expectations and rising U.S. crude oil inventories [1][13]. - The refining sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with domestic gasoline and diesel price spreads strengthening due to declining costs, while international product price spreads are weakening [1][13]. - In the chemical sector, olefin prices are showing strength, with significant improvements in price spreads for polyolefins, while other products like EVA and pure benzene are experiencing price declines [1][40][46]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Iraq has resumed oil exports from the Kurdistan region, and OPEC+ plans to increase production starting in April, leading to bearish pressure on international oil prices [1][13]. - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices are reported at 7257.14 CNY/ton and 8440.86 CNY/ton respectively, with price spreads against crude oil showing positive changes [13]. Chemical Sector - Polyethylene prices are stable with slight increases, and price spreads have improved significantly [40]. - EVA prices have slightly decreased, but the price spread has widened [40]. - The market for acrylonitrile is oversupplied, leading to a significant drop in prices [46]. - The polyester sector is facing price declines, but the price spread has improved slightly [54][61]. Polyester Sector - PX prices are down, but the price spread against crude oil has widened [54]. - PTA prices have decreased slightly, with a small improvement in profitability [61]. - The demand for polyester filament yarn is increasing, leading to a slight recovery in profitability for certain products [63]. Stock Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, noting varied performance over the past week and month, with notable increases for companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Dongfang Shenghong [82][83].