2025年1-2月外贸数据点评：春节扰动不改出口韧性

Export Data - In January-February 2025, China's export growth was 2.3% year-on-year, down from 10.7% in the previous period[2] - The trade surplus increased by 36.8% year-on-year, compared to a 40.3% increase previously[2] - The decline in export growth was influenced by the Lunar New Year timing and a reduction in the number of days in February[9] Import Data - China's imports fell by 8.4% year-on-year in January-February 2025, down from a 1.0% increase in December 2024[2] - The decline in imports was primarily due to raw materials and agricultural products, with agricultural imports dragging down growth by 1.3 percentage points[21] - High-tech products contributed positively to imports, increasing by 1.6 percentage points, with significant contributions from automatic data processing equipment and integrated circuits[21] Market Trends - The resilience in exports is linked to the expansion of overseas manufacturing, with the global manufacturing PMI rising from 49.6% in December 2024 to 50.6% in February 2025[15] - Exports to major trading partners such as ASEAN, the US, and the EU maintained positive growth, contributing over 80% to the overall export growth[15] Product Performance - Textile and footwear exports experienced negative growth, contributing a decline of 1.57 percentage points to overall export growth[19] - Mechanical and electrical products saw a growth rate of 4.2%, contributing 2.47 percentage points to the overall export growth[19] Risks - Potential risks include slower-than-expected implementation of growth policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and greater-than-expected overseas economic downturns[24]