行业研究——周报：原油周报：OPEC+仍计划4月增产，油价震荡下跌

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the current oil price cycle is fundamentally driven by supply-side factors, with concerns over oil demand persisting in the market. Some oil-producing countries are shifting from a strategy of market share competition to one focused on price support and revenue protection. The U.S. oil production faces constraints due to resource degradation and inflationary pressures on costs, while OPEC+ maintains a strong commitment to high oil prices, suggesting a continued support for price floors [6][8][7]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of March 7, 2025, oil prices have shown a downward trend, with Brent and WTI prices at $70.36 and $67.04 per barrel, respectively. This reflects a decrease of 3.36% and 3.90% from the previous week [6][22]. Oil Price Outlook - The report suggests that the U.S. shale oil production capacity is limited due to various factors, including energy policies and rising costs. OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cuts, which could further tighten global supply [7][8]. Offshore Drilling Services - As of March 3, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms is 378, a decrease of 5 from the previous week. The number of floating drilling platforms is 141, also down by 1 [28]. U.S. Oil Supply - The U.S. oil production was reported at 13.508 million barrels per day as of February 28, 2025, with an increase of 0.06 million barrels per day from the previous week. The active rig count remained stable at 486 [33][30]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing was 15.387 million barrels per day as of February 28, 2025, a decrease of 346,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 85.90% [38][34]. U.S. Oil Inventory - As of February 28, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventory was 829 million barrels, an increase of 3.614 million barrels (+0.44%) from the previous week. Commercial crude oil inventory rose to 434 million barrels, up by 3.614 million barrels (+0.84%) [44][39].