煤炭周报：需求预期回暖，价格震荡反弹

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to benefit from improving macroeconomic conditions and policy support, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices and overall profitability within the coal-coke-steel supply chain [4][6] - The report highlights the resilience of non-electric demand for coal and anticipates a U-shaped price trend for thermal coal in 2025, driven by limited production growth and recovering demand [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - Price Analysis: The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is reported at 688 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous week, while Q5000 coal increased by 1.2% to 601 CNY/ton [12][19] - Supply and Demand Analysis: Rail input to Qinhuangdao port decreased by 9.03% to 423,000 tons, and port throughput fell by 30.08% to the same amount [36] - Inventory Analysis: Qinhuangdao's coal inventory increased by 10.47% to 7.49 million tons, while key power plant inventories decreased by 3.48% [44][48] - International Coal Market: International coal prices have seen declines, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal at 75 USD/ton, down 1.32% [52][54] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector's performance has lagged behind the broader market, with a 0.45% increase compared to a 1.56% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [57][60] 3. Important Events Review - The report notes significant developments in the coal industry, including a 5.4% year-on-year increase in Inner Mongolia's coal production, positioning it as the leading coal-producing region in China [63] - China’s coal imports for January-February 2025 totaled 76.12 million tons, reflecting a 2.1% increase year-on-year [63][64]