行业行深业度周报告：多品种供需收紧预期显现，关注有色金属板块行情

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][63]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The US unemployment rate is rising, leading to a short-term increase in gold prices. As of March 7, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.76% to $2917.7 per ounce, while SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 1.1% to 894.34 tons. The unemployment rate in the US reached 4.1%, up by 0.1 percentage points. The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, which supports gold prices in the short term. However, profit-taking may lead to price fluctuations, with a long-term bullish outlook due to inflation expectations and weakening dollar credit [3][4]. - Industrial Metals: Supply disruptions are expected to drive price increases in industrial metals. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring this trend [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Index Trends - As of March 7, 2025, the non-ferrous metal index closed at 5200.95 points, up 6.7% month-on-month. The precious metal index rose by 6.5% to 14998.49 points, while the industrial metal index increased by 8.4% to 1943.89 points. The energy metal index rose by 3.9% to 1563.71 points, compared to a 1.4% increase in the CSI 300 index [13]. 2. Precious Metals Gold - The gold price is expected to remain strong in the long term due to inflation expectations and a weakening dollar credit [3]. 3. Industrial Metals Copper - As of March 7, SHFE copper futures rose by 1.9% to 78320 CNY/ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 368,000 tons, with a decrease of 8,100 tons. The report anticipates a gradual increase in copper prices due to tightening supply and recovering demand [7][9]. Aluminum - SHFE aluminum futures increased by 0.9% to 20835 CNY/ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory stood at 871,000 tons, with a recovering demand outlook. The report suggests a bullish trend for aluminum prices [7][9]. Tin - SHFE tin futures rose by 2.65% to 262900 CNY/ton. Domestic tin social inventory decreased by 754 tons to 8399 tons. The report indicates a potential supply shortage and long-term demand growth driven by AI applications [8][9]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rebound due to a temporary export ban from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which will tighten global supply [9]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the copper, aluminum, and tin sectors. Specific companies to watch include Zijin Mining for copper, Tianshan Co. for aluminum, and Xiyang Co. for tin [9][62].