建筑装饰行业研究周报：25年财政政策加码有望带来多少基建增量资金？

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The fiscal policy increase in 2025 is expected to support infrastructure investment growth of over 5% [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the conversion pace of physical workloads in the infrastructure industry chain and investment opportunities in high-prosperity regions, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge [1][3] - The report suggests focusing on cyclical trends in infrastructure and real estate, with particular attention to leading companies in steel structures and chemical engineering [1] Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy and Infrastructure Investment - The government work report indicates a continued implementation of proactive fiscal policies, with a fiscal deficit target of 5.66 trillion yuan for 2025, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan year-on-year [13] - The total public budget expenditure is projected to be 29.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan [13] - The report estimates that the increase in fiscal deficit will contribute approximately 3,000 billion yuan to infrastructure funding [20][21] Market Performance Review - The construction index rose by 0.37% during the week of March 3-7, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increasing by 0.10% [28] - Notable stock performances included Hainan Huatie (+28.4%), Zhenghe Ecology (+23.6%), and Saiwei Intelligent (+18.9%) [28] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the conversion pace of physical workloads in infrastructure, particularly in high-demand sectors such as water conservancy, railways, and aviation [33] - Recommended stocks include Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, among others [33][34] - Attention should also be given to cyclical engineering sectors, particularly in steel structures and coal chemical projects [34] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in low-altitude economy, overseas expansion, and small-cap transformation themes [35]