Ping An Securities·2025-03-09 14:11Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][40] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality residential price anchoring effects on market expectations. Current market divergence is noted, with some cities' second-hand housing prices not stabilizing, which may affect new housing market recovery. The report suggests a unique stabilization path from 2022 to 2024, characterized by a "no-differential price decline spiral" [4] - The focus should shift from concerns about early inventory asset quality to the profit margin changes of new projects. The report indicates that the pressure from early inventory impairment has been somewhat released, and the market's expectations regarding this have been adequately priced in. Attention should be directed towards the de-stocking rates and profit margins of newly acquired land projects [4] - The report reiterates that the current period is still suitable for sector allocation, recommending specific companies with lighter historical burdens and optimized inventory structures, as well as those undergoing valuation recovery [4] Market Monitoring - Transaction volume has decreased, with new housing transactions in 50 key cities dropping to 15,000 units, a 34.4% decrease week-on-week. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in March (as of the 7th) shows a year-on-year decline of 31% [12] - Inventory has decreased by 0.7% week-on-week, with a de-stocking cycle of 18.9 months. The total inventory in 16 cities is 91.02 million square meters [16] - The real estate sector saw a decline of 0.91% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 1.39%. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 36.09 times, placing it at the 94.24% percentile over the past five years [27][28] Policy Environment - The government work report emphasizes the need to continuously promote the stabilization of the real estate market and accelerate the construction of a new development model for real estate [8]