石油石化行业专题研究：从发电成本看欧洲煤炭与天然气的价格关系

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - Renewable energy is gradually dominating the power generation sector in Europe, with a significant increase in its share from 2010 to 2024, particularly accelerated by the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 [1][10] - The demand for coal and gas-fired power generation in Europe is expected to further contract, with total power generation projected to decline from 1790 TWh in 2025 to 1693 TWh in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of -2.0% to -3.0% [2][20] - The relationship between coal and gas prices is becoming increasingly linked to generation costs, with expectations that both will experience strong price interdependence as they compete for limited market share [3][50] Summary by Sections 1. Power Generation Trends - Overall power generation in Europe is projected to remain stable around 5000 TWh from 2010 to 2024, with a notable shift towards renewable energy sources [1][10] - Renewable energy generation is expected to increase significantly, with solar, wind, and hydro power showing substantial growth rates of 44%, 12%, and 18% respectively in 2023-2024 compared to 2022 [12] 2. Market Dynamics for Coal and Gas - The European electricity market is anticipated to see a contraction in coal and gas-fired generation due to the rise of renewable energy, with total demand for these sources decreasing [2][20] - The cost dynamics between coal and gas are critical, with the TTF gas price influencing coal prices, especially during periods of supply constraints [21][24] 3. Price Forecasts - By the end of 2025, the TTF gas price is expected to stabilize above $12 per MMBtu, correlating to a coal price of approximately$115 per ton [51] - In 2026, as supply increases, the gas price may drop to around $10 per MMBtu, leading to a projected coal price of about$80 per ton [52] 4. Supply and Demand Factors - The dependency on imported gas is increasing, with the share of Russian gas imports significantly reduced from 41% in 2021 to an estimated 11% in 2024 [28] - The EU's coal production is declining, but the demand drop is more pronounced, leading to a squeeze on coal imports and an increase in self-sufficiency [35] 5. Competitive Landscape - The competition between coal and gas is expected to evolve through three phases, with the current phase characterized by high gas prices leading to a resurgence in coal generation due to its relatively lower cost [39][45]