宏观利率图表217：政策待机

Domestic Market Analysis - The monetary policy includes a 1.901 billion CNY operation of the Standing Lending Facility in February, with an end balance of 1.3 billion CNY[2] - The future scale of re-loans for technological innovation and transformation is set to expand to between 800 billion and 1 trillion CNY[2] - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5%, a CPI increase of about 2%, and a deficit ratio of 4%[2] - In February, the Caixin Services PMI was at 51.4, while the Manufacturing PMI was at 50.8[2] - Exports grew by 3.4% in January-February, while imports fell by 7.3%[2] International Market Analysis - The U.S. economy showed a slight increase in overall activity since mid-January, according to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book[3] - The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, indicating a potential end to the easing cycle[3] - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 151,000 in February, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%[3] - The Atlanta Fed revised down the U.S. Q1 GDP forecast, expecting a contraction of over 2.8%[3] Strategic Recommendations - A global strategy to buy U.S. dollars (+DXY) and U.S. Treasury bonds (-TU) is recommended[4] - Domestically, a strategic approach to steepen the yield curve (+2×TS2506-1×T2506) is advised[4] Risk Factors - Potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts and risks associated with U.S. and European debt are highlighted[5] - The risk of yen appreciation is also noted[5]