宏观策略周报：行情仍有延续性，关注顺周期及两会热点方向

Market Overview - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.56% to close at 3372.55 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.19% to 10843.73 points during the week of March 3-7, 2025 [6][8][15] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 16557.53 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 15.41% compared to the previous week [6][8][15] - The report highlights that sectors such as non-ferrous metals, defense industry, and computers showed significant gains, indicating a strong performance in cyclical stocks [6][8][15] Government Policy Insights - The 2025 Government Work Report maintains a GDP growth target of around 5%, emphasizing a stable yet progressive approach amid increasing external uncertainties [6][18] - The report outlines a more proactive fiscal policy with a deficit rate set at 4%, focusing on hard technology and livelihood security [6][18] - The monetary policy is expected to continue its "moderately loose" stance, with potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [6][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cyclical stocks and themes related to the Two Sessions, particularly in sectors like consumer electronics, home appliances, and automobiles, which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [6][23][25] - It emphasizes the long-term upward trend of Chinese technology stocks, particularly in artificial intelligence, 6G, and smart robotics, as key investment opportunities [6][23][25] - High-dividend sectors are also highlighted as having sustained value, with recommendations to consider banks, coal, and public utilities [6][25] Sector Performance - The report notes that small-cap stocks outperformed larger ones, with the CSI 500 index rising by 2.63% and the CSI 1000 index increasing by 3.79% [6][15][17] - The defense industry is expected to benefit from increased spending, while non-ferrous metals are seen as a bet on cyclical recovery [6][17][18] Economic Indicators - The report mentions that China's total trade value for the first two months of 2025 was 6.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, with exports growing by 3.4% [6][20][21] - It highlights the impact of seasonal effects and high base numbers on export performance, with expectations for improvement in March [6][20][21]