有色钢铁行业周观点（2025年第10周）：德国财政刺激大超预期，关注铜铝和小金属板块投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The German fiscal stimulus significantly exceeds expectations, with a proposed infrastructure special fund of up to €500 billion, potentially exceeding €1 trillion in total. This is expected to lead to substantial expansion in overseas industrial metal demand, particularly benefiting copper, aluminum, and small metals sectors [8][15] - Steel consumption has increased, with rebar consumption rising to 2.2 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 15.54%. However, the price index for common steel has slightly decreased by 0.72% [16][39] - Industrial metals are expected to see continued price increases, particularly copper, driven by demand from photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and AI sectors [18] - Precious metals are anticipated to rise due to increased demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, with gold prices showing a week-on-week increase of 1.76% [18] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Rebar consumption increased significantly, with a total of 2.2 million tons consumed, marking a 15.54% increase week-on-week and a 23.18% increase year-on-year [20] - The overall price index for common steel has decreased slightly, with rebar prices at ¥3409 per ton, down 1.14% week-on-week [39] - Steel inventory has decreased slightly, with total inventory at 1.34 million tons, a 0.16% decrease week-on-week and a 24.07% decrease year-on-year [27] Industrial Metals - The LME aluminum settlement price rose to $2693 per ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.10% [18] - The copper refining fee remains negative at -$15.60 per thousand tons, indicating a potential for continued price increases in copper due to rising demand [18] - The report highlights the importance of copper in the context of increasing demand from renewable energy and electric vehicles [18] Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen to $2917.7 per ounce, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.76% [18] - The report notes a decrease in non-commercial net long positions in gold, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [18] New Energy Metals - Lithium production in January 2025 was reported at 54,410 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.55% but a month-on-month decrease of 14.56% [45] - The demand for new energy vehicles has surged, with January 2025 production reaching 965,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.85% [49]