摩根士丹利：《脉动》（2025 年 3 月）-债券 股票 另类投资 转型

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight position on equities, particularly European equities, while being underweight in duration-sensitive bonds [75][78]. Core Insights - European equities are viewed as an attractive investment opportunity due to recovering PMIs, low earnings expectations, and favorable pro-growth policies [4][9][59]. - The report highlights a potential rebound in the European Construction & Construction Materials sector, driven by rate cuts and reconstruction efforts related to the Ukraine ceasefire [10][65]. - A shift in economic policy is anticipated, with the private sector expected to take over as a growth driver as public sector spending decreases [18][22]. - The report indicates that inflation expectations are rising, with inflation breakevens moving above post-pandemic averages, suggesting a mildly inflationary environment [14][15][39]. Summary by Sections Top Ideas - Adding to European equity exposure is recommended, countering consensus views, due to recovering global PMIs and low earnings expectations [9][59]. - Overweighting European construction is suggested as the sector is poised for a rebound with improving fundamentals and potential reconstruction efforts [10][65]. - A turning point for real estate is noted, with stabilizing pricing and improving long-term operating outlooks [12][69]. Economic Outlook - Global economic growth remains positive, supported by easy central bank policies outside Japan, which is beneficial for earnings and asset prices [7]. - Economic policy uncertainty has risen significantly, yet growth data continues to point towards expansion [28]. Market Trends - The report notes that cyclical sectors, particularly materials, have shown improved earnings surprises, indicating a recovery trend [32]. - Small- and mid-cap segments are expected to benefit from a continued manufacturing recovery, contrasting with large-cap earnings trends [36]. Fixed Income Insights - The report suggests a modest underweight in duration-sensitive bonds due to expectations of a steepening yield curve and rising inflation risks [11][78]. - Bank loans are highlighted as a strong performer, with attractive valuations and high carry relative to other fixed income sectors [43]. Alternatives and Commodities - The report maintains a neutral stance on key commodity markets, balancing geopolitical risks with high spare capacity [83]. - Hedge funds are favored for their ability to navigate market volatility and capitalize on price movements [83].