Full Truck Alliance .(YMM) 东吴证券·2025-03-09 20:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported revenue and profit exceeding expectations, with a revenue of 31.74 billion RMB in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.8%. The transaction service revenue grew by 71%, accounting for over 36% of total revenue [8] - Non-GAAP operating profit increased by 142% to 963 million RMB, with an operating profit margin rising by 14 percentage points to 30.3%. Non-GAAP net profit grew by 43.5% to 1.052 billion RMB [8] - The company expects Q1 2025 revenue to be between 2.63 billion and 2.68 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.9% to 18.1% [8] - The platform's value for shippers and drivers continues to manifest, with a significant increase in order volume. The average monthly active users (MAU) for shippers reached 2.93 million, up 31.3% year-on-year [8] - The revenue from commission-based services is increasing, with transaction service revenue reaching 1.158 billion RMB in Q4 2024, a 71.1% increase year-on-year [8] - The company has shown improved customer acquisition efficiency, with a decrease in sales expense ratio by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [8] Financial Projections - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 11.239 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 33% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to be 3.967 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 43% increase [1] - The report has adjusted the Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 5.4 billion RMB and 7.0 billion RMB, respectively, and introduced a new forecast for 2027 at 8.9 billion RMB [8]