定量策略周观点总第153周：“东升西落”叙事进入验证期

Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that the "non-US asset wave market" is entering its mid-to-late stage, with favorable policies from the Two Sessions and advancements in AI technology contributing to the narrative of "East rising, West falling" [1][29] - The report indicates that the probability of a recession in the US economy is low, and foreign capital's re-evaluation of Chinese assets requires sufficient time for validation [1][29] - It is recommended to maintain core holdings in AI applications (mostly in Hong Kong stocks) while participating in the recovery of cyclical sectors from the bottom [1][29] Group 2 - For the US stock market, the overall view remains bearish with low positioning, despite signs of potential protective long positions emerging [1][33] - The report notes that non-farm payroll data was weak but met expectations, and the market is concerned about recession-related data [1][32] - The upcoming CPI data and the March FOMC meeting are highlighted as critical for market direction [1][32] Group 3 - In the Japanese stock market, the yen's appreciation trend continues, and the market's interest rate hike expectations have been reduced from two to one [2][34] - The report expresses a bullish outlook for Japanese stocks, indicating no immediate concerns about a repeat of the risk asset crash seen in August 2024 [2][34] Group 4 - The A-share market is maintaining a full position signal, with significant attention on the technology sector's high trading volume and the need for verification of foreign capital's rebalancing [2][36] - The report suggests focusing more on Hong Kong stocks than A-shares, with short-term attention on the recovery opportunities in consumer, cyclical, and financial sectors [2][36] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market is showing a bullish model, with the Hang Seng Technology Index reaching new highs before weakening [4][46] - The report indicates a mixed trading sentiment in the Hong Kong market, with a rising short-selling ratio and a slight contraction in foreign capital buying [4][44] - The basic economic indicators for Hong Kong are improving, with the OECD data showing a rise to 100.38, supporting the market's fundamentals [4][45] Group 6 - The report emphasizes the importance of industry rotation strategies in the A-share market, which are beginning to show signs of recovery [2][47] - It highlights the ongoing high market trading volume and the effectiveness of small-cap timing strategies, suggesting a gradual shift towards balanced market capitalization [2][50] - The report also notes that the high liquidity inflow in the past month has favored sectors such as industrial manufacturing, essential consumption, materials, and real estate [2][48]