油气开采和炼化及贸易：油价中枢有望中高位，驱动板块或将保持较高景气度

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][54]. Core Insights - The oil and gas extraction sector is expected to see increased profitability due to a recovery in domestic economic conditions and a decrease in overseas inflation, while the refining and trading sector may experience a slight revenue decline [3][15]. - Oil prices are projected to stabilize at a mid-to-high level, which will support the overall performance of the oil and gas extraction and refining sectors [4][7]. - The report highlights that the average Brent crude oil price for 2024 is expected to be around $82.72 per barrel, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.70$69.19 and $91.17 per barrel, with an average monthly price of$80.8 per barrel [4][20]. - In early 2025, Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $78.34 in January and$75.55 in February, showing a month-on-month decline [4][20]. 3. Supply Dynamics - Global oil supply is expected to gradually increase in the first half of 2025, despite a slight drop in oil price levels, primarily due to OPEC+ production adjustments and a rebound in U.S. shale oil output [5][22]. - OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cuts to stabilize oil prices amid fluctuating global demand and increased production from non-OPEC countries [6][24]. 4. Company Performance - The oil and gas extraction sector reported total revenues of CNY 336.17 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.01%, while the refining and trading sector saw revenues of CNY 55,223.55 billion, down 2.52% [3][33]. - Companies like CNOOC and PetroChina have shown strong profitability, with CNOOC achieving a net profit of CNY 116.66 billion, up 19.5% year-on-year [9][39]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high dividends and growth potential, highlighting CNOOC and China National Petroleum as key investment targets due to their strong dividend yields and growth prospects [10][42]. - The expected average dividend yields for major companies in the sector from 2024 to 2026 are projected to be 4.66% for PetroChina, 5.19% for Sinopec, 4.34% for CNOOC, and 6.50% for China National Offshore Oil [10][40].