Xinda Securities·2025-03-10 03:19Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the tire industry, with a projected slight increase in tire shipments in the U.S. for 2025, estimated at 0.9% growth [5][6]. Core Insights - The U.S. tire market remains stable, with retail sales in automotive parts and tire stores at $10.821 billion in January 2025, showing a month-over-month decline of 0.80% but a year-over-year increase of 2.27% [5][6]. - The collaboration between Sailun Tire and Xiaomi to develop the SU7 Ultra high-performance tire indicates innovation and potential growth in the high-performance segment [5][6]. - The U.S. tire manufacturers association (USTMA) forecasts total tire shipments to reach 340.4 million units in 2025, surpassing the previous record set in 2024 [5][6]. Summary by Sections U.S. Market - Retail sales in automotive parts and tire stores were $10.821 billion in January 2025, down 0.80% month-over-month but up 2.27% year-over-year [5][6]. - Gasoline consumption was 8.5365 million barrels per day in February 2025, up 2.79% month-over-month and 1.50% year-over-year [5][6]. - Diesel consumption was 4.0343 million barrels per day in February 2025, down 0.29% month-over-month but up 8.98% year-over-year [5][6]. - USTMA projects a 0.9% increase in U.S. tire shipments for 2025, reaching 340.4 million units [5][6]. Raw Materials - In February 2025, the average price of natural rubber was 17,161 yuan/ton, up 2.70% month-over-month and 31.72% year-over-year [7][8]. - The tire raw material price index for February 2025 was 179.43, reflecting a 3.70% increase month-over-month and an 8.98% increase year-over-year [7][8]. Production and Export - In February 2025, the average operating rate for Chinese all-steel tires was 54.44%, up 26.67 percentage points year-over-year, and for semi-steel tires, it was 66.52%, up 18.03 percentage points year-over-year [22][25]. - In December 2024, China's rubber tire production was 105.56 million units, up 2.04% month-over-month and 21.51% year-over-year [25][29]. Global Market Trends - The global tire replacement market showed a month-over-month growth of 1% in December 2024, with North America at 7% and Europe at 5% [37][38]. - The European half-steel tire replacement market reached a record high in Q4 2024, while the full-steel tire replacement market remained at a lower level [87].