有色金属与新材料周报：多品种供需收紧预期显现，关注有色金属板块行情

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][63]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: The US unemployment rate is rising, leading to a short-term increase in gold prices. As of March 7, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.76% to $2917.7 per ounce, while SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 1.1% to 894.34 tons. The unemployment rate in the US reached 4.1%, up by 0.1 percentage points. The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, which supports gold prices in the short term. However, profit-taking may lead to price fluctuations, with a long-term bullish outlook due to inflation expectations and weakening dollar credit [3][4]. - Industrial Metals: Supply disruptions are expected to drive price increases in industrial metals. The report highlights the importance of monitoring these trends [4]. - Copper: As of March 7, SHFE copper futures rose by 1.9% to 78,320 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 368,000 tons, with a decrease of 8,100 tons. The report indicates that the US manufacturing PMI recovery may boost industrial metal demand, and the long-term supply rigidity of copper is expected to support price increases [8][10]. - Aluminum: As of March 7, SHFE aluminum futures increased by 0.9% to 20,835 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 871,000 tons, with a continued decline. The report suggests that the aluminum sector may see price increases due to demand recovery and cost support [8][10]. - Tin: As of March 7, SHFE tin futures rose by 2.65% to 262,900 yuan per ton. Domestic tin social inventory decreased by 754 tons to 8,399 tons. The report anticipates a global tin shortage if production resumes in Q2, with long-term demand growth driven by AI applications [9][10]. - Cobalt: As of March 7, cobalt concentrate prices increased by 35.7% year-on-year. The Democratic Republic of Congo announced a temporary ban on cobalt exports, which is expected to tighten global supply and support price rebounds [9][10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to remain strong in the long term due to inflation and dollar credit concerns [3][4]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Demand recovery and supply constraints are expected to support copper prices [8][10]. - Aluminum: The sector is likely to experience price increases due to recovering demand and cost factors [8][10]. - Tin: Anticipated global shortages and AI-driven demand growth are key factors for the tin market [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the copper, aluminum, and tin sectors, highlighting specific companies such as Zijin Mining, Tianshan Shares, and Xiyang Shares for potential investment opportunities [10][62].