国内观察：2025年2月通胀数据：3月CPI同比转正的难度不大

Inflation Data Summary - In February 2025, the CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.7%, down from 0.5% in January, while the month-on-month change was -0.2%, compared to 0.7% previously[3] - The PPI year-on-year was -2.2%, slightly improved from -2.3% in January, with a month-on-month change of -0.1%[3] - Excluding the impact of the Spring Festival, the CPI for February would have increased by 0.1% year-on-year[3] CPI and PPI Analysis - The CPI is expected to return to positive territory in March, with a potential year-on-year increase of 0.3% if the month-on-month remains stable[3] - The PPI remains in the range of -2% to -3%, indicating a need for increased demand to break out of this range[3] - Food prices showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% in February, while the average CPI for January-February was 0.25%, only slightly above the historical low of 0.15% in 2023[3] Sector Performance - Non-food prices averaged a month-on-month increase of 0.2% for January-February, consistent with the five-year average[3] - Key sectors showing strength include clothing, daily necessities, and transportation, while education and healthcare lagged behind[3] - Core CPI turned negative at -0.1% in February but is likely to rebound in March[3] Risks and Policy Implications - The government has lowered the CPI target for 2025 from 3% to 2%, indicating a shift towards policy-driven efforts to manage inflation[3] - Risks include potential delays in domestic policy implementation, slower-than-expected consumer recovery, and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies[3]