宏观周度观察：滞胀压力叠加非美货币强势，美元承压

Economic Outlook - The 2025 government work report sets a GDP growth target of approximately 5% and aims for a CPI increase of around 2%[3] - The fiscal deficit is projected at 4% of GDP, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year[3] - The report emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy, including the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds to stimulate consumption and investment[3][4] Market Stability Measures - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing both the real estate and stock markets, marking the first time such measures are included in overall requirements[15][17] - Specific measures include targeted easing of restrictions in the real estate market and promoting the acquisition of existing housing stock to stabilize prices[17] Consumption and Investment - A special action plan to boost consumption will be implemented, including measures to increase income for low- and middle-income groups[4] - Central budget investment is proposed at 735 billion yuan to support effective investment and enhance service sector investment[4] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will remain "appropriately loose," with potential for interest rate cuts and maintaining liquidity to support economic growth[16][29] - The central bank plans to expand the scale of re-lending for technological innovation and reduce re-lending rates to support strategic sectors[29] International Trade and Currency - The US dollar index has fallen below 104, influenced by rising concerns over the US economic outlook and strengthening of the euro and yen[18][20] - The US economy is facing a potential contraction of 2.8% in Q1 2025, with significant layoffs and rising unemployment claims indicating economic weakness[19][31] Inflation and Gold Market - The US is experiencing a dual pressure of economic slowdown and rising inflation, contributing to a stagflation scenario[20][22] - Gold prices remain high due to increased demand as a safe-haven asset amid trade tensions and geopolitical risks, with current trading ranges between 2800-2974 USD/oz[25][24]