资产配置周报：弱商品下的长周期复苏，权益资产占优

Group 1 - The report highlights a long-term recovery under weak commodity conditions, favoring equity assets, particularly in the technology sector, while cyclical stocks show mixed performance [11][12][15] - The report suggests that the current economic phase may be in the second stage of Martin Pring's six economic cycles, indicating continued pressure on resource prices and a relative decline in the attractiveness of bonds compared to equities [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of the National People's Congress (NPC) themes, with a high frequency of mentions for "technology" and "consumption," indicating potential policy support for these sectors [12][13] Group 2 - In the global asset review, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks performed well, while U.S. stocks generally adjusted; commodities like oil fell, while gold, copper, and aluminum rose [15][16] - The domestic equity market showed a daily average trading volume of 1.6571 trillion yuan, with 26 out of 31 sectors rising, led by non-ferrous metals, defense, and computers [23] - The report notes that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, with 151,000 new jobs added, although below expectations, and highlights the potential impact of inflation data on market sentiment [14][15] Group 3 - The report tracks the energy sector, noting that WTI crude oil prices fell to a near one-year low of $66.36 per barrel, with U.S. crude production at 13.51 million barrels per day, up 310,000 barrels year-on-year [33][34] - Gold prices increased to $2,909 per ounce, driven by strong safe-haven demand, although short-term pressures may arise from U.S. Treasury yields [51][52] - The report indicates that the domestic market for refined oil is experiencing fluctuations, with independent refineries in Shandong restarting operations due to falling fuel oil prices [34][36]