东方战略周观察：德国两党政策规划的最新信号

Group 1: Political Landscape - The CDU/CSU coalition has 208 seats (33%) in the new parliament, making it the largest party and likely to appoint Merz as the next Chancellor[12] - The SPD holds 120 seats (19%), while the AfD has 152 seats (24%) in the new parliament[12] - The coalition negotiations focus on political positions and policy directions, with initial agreements reached by March 8, 2025[13] Group 2: Policy Directions - The coalition plans to raise the minimum wage to €15 per hour and lower energy prices while providing subsidies for electric vehicles[13] - A proposed amendment to the "debt brake" mechanism aims to allow necessary defense spending to exceed 1% of GDP and create an off-budget infrastructure fund of €500 billion[13] - The infrastructure fund will be allocated for civil protection, transportation, healthcare, energy infrastructure, education, and digitalization from 2025 to 2034, with 20% of the funds going to state and local governments[18] Group 3: Fiscal Challenges - The "debt brake" mechanism limits structural net borrowing to 0.35% of nominal GDP, requiring a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament for amendments[15] - The CDU/CSU and SPD currently hold 196 (26.7%) and 207 (28.2%) seats respectively, needing 489 seats for a two-thirds majority, complicating the reform process[15] - The coalition must negotiate with the Green Party, which holds 117 seats, to gain support for the proposed fiscal reforms[15]