Ping An Securities·2025-03-10 07:11Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market by more than 5% over the next six months [43]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamentals of the food and beverage industry are stabilizing, presenting opportunities for revaluation. It notes that the high-end liquor market is showing signs of recovery, with stable pricing for core products and a continuous increase in market share for premium brands [5][6]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the snack and restaurant sectors, highlighting the ongoing channel and product advantages in the snack market, as well as a potential slight recovery in the restaurant industry [5][6]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index has shown a cumulative increase of 1.51%, with notable performers including Gujing Gongjiu (+4.97%) and Luzhou Laojiao (+3.91%). The report identifies three main investment lines: high-end liquor (recommended brands include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao), mid-range liquor (recommended brand is Shanxi Fenjiu), and real estate liquor (recommended brands include Yingjia Gongjiu and Jianshiyuan) [5][6]. - The report forecasts that Kweichow Moutai will achieve a revenue growth of 15.44% in 2024, with a projected revenue of 507 billion yuan in Q4 2024, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase [7]. - Luzhou Laojiao is expected to maintain a solid market presence with a revenue of 74 billion yuan in Q3 2024, showing a 0.7% increase year-on-year [7]. Food Industry - The food index has experienced a cumulative decline of 1.10%, with top performers including ST Chuntian (+10.84%) and Jinzi Ham (+10.02%). The report suggests focusing on the snack and restaurant supply chain for investment opportunities, particularly in high-growth segments like snacks and the potential recovery in the restaurant sector [5][6]. - The report highlights that East Peak Beverage achieved a revenue of 125.58 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 45.34% increase year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 63.53% [11]. - The report also notes that Yanjing Beer is focusing on high-end strategies and has reported a revenue of 128.46 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a 3.47% increase year-on-year [11]. Key Company Performance - Gujing Gongjiu reported a revenue of 53 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% and a net profit increase of 13.6% [9]. - East Peak Beverage's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 158 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 41% [22]. - The report indicates that the overall food and beverage industry has shown a cumulative increase of 0.77% this week, with significant fluctuations among individual stocks [14].