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银行业周报:经济政策目标积极,大行拟注资5000亿元
兴业证券·2025-03-10 07:33

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The overall policy for stabilizing growth aligns with expectations, with a 2025 economic growth target of around 5% and a proposed deficit ratio of approximately 4% [3][8] - The issuance of special government bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan is planned, including 500 billion yuan to support the capital replenishment of state-owned commercial banks [3][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and improving investment efficiency as a top priority [3][8] - The capital replenishment scale for state-owned banks is better than expected, with the issuance of special government bonds having a limited impact on dividend dilution [3][9] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The CITIC Bank Index rose by 1.11% during the week from March 3 to March 7, 2025, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.39% [7] - Notable performers included Qilu Bank (+4.65%), China Merchants Bank (+3.61%), and Industrial Bank (+2.94%) [7] Industry and Company Dynamics - The People's Bank of China reported a 21.2% year-on-year increase in loans to technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises by the end of 2024 [14] - The government work report proposed implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year [15][16] Recent Market Review - The report includes a review of the A-share and H-share banks' performance, with specific price changes and valuation metrics provided [21][23] Funding Price Review - The report details the recent operations in the open market, including reverse repos and MLF operations, highlighting a net withdrawal of 8.813 billion yuan on March 7, 2025 [29] Wealth Management Product Tracking - The report tracks the scale of the bank wealth management market, indicating ongoing trends in product yields and market dynamics [38] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market Review - The report provides insights into the issuance rates of interbank certificates of deposit, showing slight fluctuations in rates across different maturities [40]