Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of 2,440 million RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.0%, primarily driven by new photovoltaic project acquisitions [5][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 791 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a decline of 12.1% year-on-year due to increased withholding tax from subsidiary dividends [5][6] - The company has a strong cash flow position, with operating cash flow expected to grow by 42% year-on-year to 960 million RMB in 2024 [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 5 HKD per share for 2024, a decrease of 17% compared to the previous year [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2024: 2,440 million RMB (7.0% growth) - 2025E: 2,533 million RMB (3.8% growth) - 2026E: 2,569 million RMB (1.4% growth) - 2027E: 2,699 million RMB (5.1% growth) [4] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2024: 791 million RMB (-12.1% growth) - 2025E: 861 million RMB (8.9% growth) - 2026E: 903 million RMB (4.8% growth) - 2027E: 984 million RMB (9.0% growth) [4] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2024: 6.3% - 2025E: 6.6% - 2026E: 6.7% - 2027E: 6.8% [4] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024: 0.10 RMB - 2025E: 0.10 RMB - 2026E: 0.11 RMB - 2027E: 0.12 RMB [4] - Dividend Yield: - 2024: 5.0% - 2025E: 5.5% - 2026E: 5.9% - 2027E: 6.5% [4] Operational Highlights - The company added 860 MW of new installed capacity in 2024, bringing the total installed capacity to 4,510.5 MW, with 62% of this being grid-parity projects [5][9] - The total electricity sales volume is expected to increase by 13.8% year-on-year to 4.35 billion kWh in 2024 [12] - The company has a stable subsidy recovery situation, with 4.8 billion RMB in subsidies expected to be recovered in 2024, which is consistent with the previous year [12]
信义能源：经营现金流改善，融资利率下行-20250310