美股处于周期顶部，波动或加大

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the A-share technology sector, with significant increases in various indices, suggesting a favorable investment environment [1][9]. Core Insights - The A-share market has shown resilience, particularly in the technology sector, which has led to a value reassessment since the beginning of the year, with the Sci-Tech 50 index rising by 15.97% and the computer industry increasing by 23.38% [1][9]. - The U.S. stock market is currently at a cyclical peak, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices showing a downward trend since their peaks in late 2022, indicating potential for increased volatility in the near future [2][29]. - The Genetic Planning Industry Rotation Model continues to favor sectors such as media, real estate, retail, precious metals, and textiles, reflecting a balanced approach to capturing potential gains while managing risks [3][34]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Performance - The A-share market, particularly the technology sector, has outperformed with notable increases in various indices, including a 15.97% rise in the Sci-Tech 50 index and a 23.38% increase in the computer industry [1][9]. - The report highlights that the overall market remains active without significant overheating signs, maintaining a positive upward trend [1][9]. U.S. Stock Market Analysis - The U.S. stock market is assessed to be at a cyclical peak, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices showing a clear downward trend since their respective highs, suggesting a risk of amplified volatility ahead [2][29]. - The report notes that the VIX index has been rising, indicating potential risks for the U.S. market [2][29]. Genetic Planning Industry Rotation Model - The Genetic Planning Industry Rotation Model has shown a 1.65% increase last week, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark strategy, which rose by 1.21% [3][34]. - The model has achieved an absolute return of 13.95% year-to-date, with a focus on sectors such as media, real estate, retail, precious metals, and textiles, indicating a balanced investment strategy [3][34]. Absolute Return ETF Simulation - The absolute return ETF simulation portfolio has increased by 0.15% last week and has a cumulative increase of 1.04% for the year, reflecting a positive trend in asset allocation [4][38]. - The portfolio includes holdings in steel, machinery, automotive, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals, with a focus on gold and energy-related ETFs [4][38]. Global Asset Allocation - The global asset allocation simulation currently favors bonds and foreign exchange, with a historical annualized return of 7.54% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.56 [42].