TongQingLou Catering (605108) 中邮证券·2025-03-10 08:23Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7] Core Views - The company is expected to face a significant decline in net profit for 2024, with projections indicating a drop of 70% to 79% year-on-year, resulting in a net profit of approximately 0.64 to 0.93 billion yuan [5][6] - The decline is attributed to several factors, including the ramp-up period for new stores, a "no spring year" affecting wedding demand, and accounting factors related to a high base from the previous year [6] - Looking ahead to 2025, the company anticipates a positive outlook with the full operation of new stores and a rebound in wedding demand due to the "double spring year" phenomenon, which is expected to significantly boost revenue and profit [6][7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 22.22 yuan - Total shares: 2.60 billion, Market capitalization: 58 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 34.19/15.63 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 43.8% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 18.99 [4] Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2024, the company expects revenue growth of 1.3%, with a significant recovery in 2025 projected at 22.6% [10] - Net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be between 0.71 to 0.304 billion yuan, with a dramatic recovery in 2025 expected to reach 0.243 billion yuan [10][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.27 yuan for 2024, increasing to 0.93 yuan in 2025 and 1.43 yuan in 2026 [10][12] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the innovative "Fumao" hotel model, which combines dining and accommodation, aiming to provide high value for customers [7] - The anticipated operational improvements and market conditions in 2025 are expected to lead to substantial revenue and profit growth, justifying the "Accumulate" rating [7]