美国就业数据梳理：美国就业市场总量尚可，但较为脆弱

Employment Market Overview - The overall employment market in the U.S. is acceptable but remains fragile, with supply-demand tightness and liquidity both below pre-pandemic peaks[4] - The labor market's tightness level was at 100.42% in December, slightly lower than the historical high from May 2018 to February 2020[10] - The voluntary resignation rate is around 2%, lower than the pre-2007 crisis level of 2.1%, indicating decreased labor market liquidity[10] Wage and Employment Trends - Actual wage growth remains relatively high year-on-year, supporting consumer spending, despite a decline in average weekly hours worked[10] - The proportion of part-time workers has increased, surpassing levels seen before the pandemic[10] - Initial jobless claims have slightly exceeded expectations, suggesting potential short-term economic downturn if this trend continues for four weeks[10] Sector-Specific Insights - Non-farm payroll data shows significant differences between cyclical and non-cyclical sectors, with non-cyclical sectors like government and healthcare remaining stable[4] - The demand for low-skilled jobs is rising, as indicated by the increasing labor participation rate among low-education groups, while high-skilled job demand appears weaker[4] - Recent trends indicate a slight recovery in cyclical industries, but a clear upward trend is not yet evident[4] Macroeconomic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data related to employment has not shown significant improvement, with manufacturing PMI recovery driven more by supplier payments and price increases rather than employment or new orders[5] - The consumer confidence index has declined, and inflation expectations have risen, indicating potential economic uncertainty[5] - The Trump administration's fiscal scrutiny and layoffs may impact non-farm employment data in the short term, particularly affecting contractors and NGOs[5]