煤炭行业2025年二季度投资展望：低估值与多频次高分红兼备，红利资产具重点配置价值

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2]. Core Insights - The coal sector has experienced a significant decline, with a cumulative drop of 13.72% from the beginning of 2025 to February 28, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 12.58 percentage points [3][11]. - The supply and demand dynamics for thermal coal are weak, but policy measures and initiatives from coal associations suggest that coal prices may stabilize in the second quarter of 2025 [4][27]. - The current price of thermal coal has decreased from 765 RMB/ton at the beginning of 2025 to 694 RMB/ton by the end of February 2025, marking a four-year low [13]. - The long-term coal contract policy is crucial for stabilizing coal prices, as it has shown to be less volatile than spot prices [16][22]. - Despite challenges from renewable energy, thermal power generation remains resilient, with expectations that coal-fired power will continue to be a primary energy source [24][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal sector's performance has been notably poor, ranking last among 30 industry categories [11]. - The report highlights the significant price drop in coal, which is attributed to weak supply and demand conditions [4][13]. 2. Fundamental Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices may stop declining and stabilize due to policy interventions and industry self-regulation [4][27]. - The coal industry associations have issued a joint statement advocating for strict adherence to coal contracts and production controls to improve market conditions [27][28]. 3. Valuation Outlook - The coal sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is currently at 9.77, which is above its historical low of 8.35 but still below the median of 13.20, indicating a low valuation [5][29]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 1.29, also below the median of 1.67, suggesting that the sector remains undervalued [32]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the coal sector, characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, is suitable for investment, particularly in light of ongoing policy support for long-term capital inflows [6][39]. - Specific investment targets include leading companies with stable earnings such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as integrated coal and power companies like Electric Power Investment and New集 Energy [39].