CPI、PPI点评（2025.2）：春节错位难掩商品消费内生动能不强

Inflation Data - February CPI fell to -0.7%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from January, marking the first negative year-on-year change in 13 months[1] - Core CPI dropped to -0.1%, down 0.7 percentage points, the lowest since February 2021[1] - PPI's year-on-year decline slightly narrowed to -2.2%, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points from January[1] Food and Commodity Prices - February food CPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, a drop of 3.7 percentage points from January[1] - Seasonal effects from the early Spring Festival led to a month-on-month food CPI decline of 0.5%, significantly lower than the average of 0.6% in previous years[1] - Meat prices, including pork, saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.9%, indicating ample supply[1] Consumer Demand and Policy Implications - Core CPI's significant drop indicates weak internal consumer demand, necessitating continued consumption subsidies[1] - February's service prices fell by 0.68% month-on-month, aligning with seasonal trends post-Spring Festival[1] - The government has increased fiscal support, expanding special bonds by 500 billion to 4.4 trillion and special treasury bonds to 1.8 trillion, which is expected to stimulate infrastructure investment[1] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual narrowing of PPI's year-on-year decline, with a potential positive shift by Q4 2025[1] - The impact of increased tariffs from the U.S. on durable goods purchasing power may necessitate additional consumption subsidies by mid-year[1] - The overall CPI forecast for the year has been slightly revised down to an average of 0.3%[1]