房地产行业周度观点更新：稳住楼市的短期和中期条件是什么？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The policy goal of stabilizing the real estate market is significantly more proactive, with market expectations improving. The volume and price pulse maintain a certain level of activity, indicating a good start to the "small spring" [3] - A trend reversal will require time, but the sharp decline in volume appears to have ended, bringing prices closer to equilibrium. The most challenging period for the industry may be passing, with opportunities for trading in quality real estate stocks [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures and market conditions for a sustainable recovery in the real estate sector, particularly in lower-tier cities where price adjustments are nearing physical reset costs [7] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 0.33% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.72%, ranking 30 out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 0.56%, also underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.79%, ranking 21 out of 32 [4][12] - Rental and property management sectors showed gains, while development sectors experienced mixed results, leading to overall poor relative performance [4] Policy Updates - The government work report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, with measures to reduce restrictive policies and promote housing demand. Local governments are also taking steps to implement affordable housing projects [5][14] - Specific policies include the introduction of a compensation scheme for urban village redevelopment in Guangzhou, with monetary compensation rates set at 22,500 yuan per square meter, potentially reaching up to 38,550 yuan per square meter with additional rewards [5][14] Sales Data - In the sample cities, the year-on-year registration volume for second-hand homes remains high, while new home registrations show a marginal decline. For the period after the Lunar New Year, new home registrations in 37 cities increased by 5% year-on-year, while second-hand homes in 19 cities rose by 40% [6][15] - As of March 7, new home transaction area in March for 37 cities increased by 9% year-on-year, while second-hand homes saw a 53.8% increase [6][15]