交通运输行业周报：油价加速下跌，抬升航空业利润中枢

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The recent decline in oil prices is expected to elevate the profit margins for the aviation sector, with Brent crude falling below $70 per barrel and WTI below$67 per barrel [9] - The report estimates that if low oil prices persist, major airlines could save between 4 to 5 billion yuan in costs, equivalent to a 3% to 4% change in ticket prices [9] - The overall demand for the express delivery sector remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in both volume and revenue [4][21] Summary by Sections Weekly Focus - The focus is on the rapid decline in oil prices, which is anticipated to boost the profit margins for airlines [5][9] Industry Data Tracking (2025.03.02 - 03.08) Aviation High-Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic flight volume for the week was 81,367 flights, averaging 11,624 flights per day, down 10.07% week-on-week and 7.47% year-on-year [11] - Domestic passenger volume reached 11.06 million, down 12.05% week-on-week and 4.17% year-on-year [12] - The average ticket price decreased by 4.76% week-on-week and 3.39% year-on-year [12] - The domestic load factor was 83.18%, up 3.73 percentage points year-on-year [13] Express Delivery High-Frequency Data Tracking - From February 24 to March 2, the average daily collection volume was approximately 534 million pieces, with a week-on-week change of -0.56% [20] - Year-to-date (January 1 to March 2), the average daily collection volume was about 488 million pieces, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.41% [21] - In 2024, the express delivery business volume grew by 21.5% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 13.8% [4][21] Shipping High-Frequency Data Tracking - The BDI index for the dry bulk market was 1,263 points, up 17% week-on-week [52] - The CCFI index for the international container shipping market fell by 3%, while the SCFI index decreased by 5% [52] - The VLCC-TCE rate for oil shipping was $39,359 per day, down 1% week-on-week [53] Recent Key Reports - The report recommends a focus on specific companies within the industry, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Shandong Highway, and various airlines and express delivery companies [5]