建筑装饰行业周观点：专项债和赤字率提升，基建投资稳健增长可期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the construction and decoration industry, driven by increased government spending and infrastructure investment [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the issuance of special bonds and an increase in the deficit ratio are expected to promote stable growth in infrastructure investment, which remains a crucial driver for economic stability [3][4]. - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion yuan, aimed at various investment projects [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on urban village and dilapidated housing renovations to stimulate housing demand [4][5]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: debt reduction driving improvements in state-owned construction enterprises, the Belt and Road Initiative accelerating international engineering projects, and high-dividend state-owned construction companies presenting attractive investment opportunities [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections Important Events Tracking - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a focus on expanding effective investment [12]. - The report outlines the issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds and a deficit target of 5.66 trillion yuan for 2025, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending [12]. Market Performance Tracking - The construction engineering sector (SW) experienced a slight decline of 0.22% from March 3 to March 7, 2025, while the overall A-share index rose by 2.43% [13][14]. - The report notes that the construction sector's performance relative to the overall market has been underwhelming, with a negative excess return of -2.65 percentage points [13][14]. Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks financing data, noting that 904.59 billion yuan in urban investment bonds were issued during the period from March 1 to March 7, 2025, with a net financing amount of 244.43 billion yuan [23]. - As of March 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached 609.765 billion yuan, accounting for 13.86% of the annual plan [25][27].