Guoyuan Securities·2025-03-11 00:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [6]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector in A-shares has shown resilience, with a 2.52% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.72 percentage points and 3.86 percentage points, respectively [11]. - The report highlights a stable pricing trend for premium liquor, particularly for Moutai, which has seen slight increases in its wholesale prices [2][26]. - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, emphasizing the importance of boosting consumption and investment efficiency as key tasks [3][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The food and beverage industry in A-shares rose by 2.52% from February 24 to March 7, outperforming major indices [11]. - Within the sector, soft drinks (+3.69%), beer (+3.53%), and meat products (+3.47%) led the gains, while snacks (-1.56%) and fermented products (-0.45%) declined [11]. - Notable stock performances included Jinzi Ham (+21.41%) and Hainan Coconut Island (+21.12%), while Ganyuan Food (-10.46%) and Pinwo Food (-8.35%) faced significant declines [11]. 2. Key Data Tracking - Moutai's wholesale prices as of March 7 were 2,255 RMB for original boxes and 2,220 RMB for bulk, reflecting increases of 15 RMB and 30 RMB, respectively, from two weeks prior [2][26]. - The average price of fresh milk was reported at 3.09 RMB/kg, down 13.7% year-on-year [35]. - The national market price for pork was 26.85 RMB/kg, up 7.3% year-on-year [38]. 3. Key Events Tracking - The government aims to implement actions to boost consumption and has set ambitious revenue targets for the liquor industry in various regions, including a goal of 300 billion RMB for Baijiu enterprises in Bozhou by 2025 [3][50]. - The report notes that certain U.S. imported food products will face increased tariffs starting March 10, 2025, which may impact the industry [50]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as they are expected to manage inventory effectively during the current consumption phase [4][52]. - For consumer staples, companies such as Yili, New Dairy, and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their strong value propositions [4][52].