有色金属：镍铝铜钾稀土，取消对俄制裁金属格局与价格将如何演绎？

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The cancellation of sanctions against Russia may lead to a reshaping of aluminum and nickel trade flows, but the overall impact on global supply is limited [2][42] - The price impact of sanctions on key metals is diminishing, with nickel expected to experience the most volatility [3][46] Summary by Sections Supply Impact - Russian production of key metals has not significantly decreased, with aluminum and nickel exports slightly declining, primarily shifting from Europe to Asia [2] - In 2024, the U.S. and EU are expected to reduce imports of Russian aluminum by 184,000 and 447,000 tons respectively, with the EU planning to completely ban imports by 2026 [2][42] - If sanctions are lifted, Russian aluminum may re-enter the U.S. and EU markets, potentially increasing global aluminum supply slightly [2][42] Price Impact - The sanctions have had a muted effect on metal prices, with market reactions becoming less pronounced over time [3][46] - Short-term price declines may occur if sanctions are lifted, but the extent of the drop is expected to be limited [3][46] Metal-Specific Insights - Aluminum: The U.S. and EU have reduced imports, but if sanctions are lifted, Russian aluminum could return to the supply chain, increasing global supply [2][42] - Nickel: The U.S. and EU are expected to reduce imports, but the U.S. may increase imports from Russia if sanctions are lifted, leading to a slight increase in global supply [2][42] - Copper: The trade relationship with the U.S. is minimal, and sanctions have little impact on copper exports, which primarily go to China and Central Asia [31] - Potash: The U.S. may increase imports of Russian potash, while the EU's imports are expected to stabilize [45] - Rare Earths: Development is still in early stages, with significant technological and infrastructure challenges limiting short-term supply impacts [40][45]