休闲服务行业周报：政策加码大力提振消费，3000亿国债助力以旧换新

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the leisure services sector [4]. Core Insights - The government prioritizes boosting consumption as a key task for 2025, implementing special actions to enhance consumer spending through various measures such as income growth for different demographic groups and optimizing regulatory frameworks [9][10]. - The introduction of a special long-term bond worth 300 billion yuan to support the replacement of old consumer goods is expected to significantly enhance consumer spending and improve the overall consumption environment [3][11]. - New consumption growth points are emerging, with sectors like the ice and snow economy, silver economy, platform economy, and low-altitude economy showing rapid development [10][12]. Summary by Sections Government Policy and Economic Impact - The government aims to increase final consumption expenditure's contribution to GDP growth, which reached 44.5% in 2024, driving a 2.2% increase in GDP [9]. - The special consumption-boosting actions will focus on income growth for skilled workers, farmers, and retirees, thereby releasing more consumer potential [9][10]. Consumer Goods Replacement Policy - The 2025 policy for replacing old consumer goods will see a funding increase to 300 billion yuan, a 100% year-on-year growth, with the first batch of 81 billion yuan already allocated [3][11]. - The policy will expand to include more consumer goods, such as microwaves, dishwashers, and smartphones, particularly in the automotive sector for new energy vehicles and compliant fuel vehicles [3][14]. Regional Policy Variations - There are regional differences in the implementation of the replacement policy, with more funding directed towards regions with better implementation results, particularly in the central and western areas [12][14]. - The policy's effectiveness varies by region, with urban areas like Beijing and Shanghai experiencing slower growth in certain consumer goods compared to western regions [12]. Emerging Consumption Trends - New consumption concepts are continuously emerging, with diverse service offerings and innovative consumption scenarios being developed [9][10]. - The platform economy is expected to transform traditional production factors into significant GDP growth drivers, while the low-altitude economy is anticipated to enhance consumption through tourism and logistics [10].