奶牛养殖行业分析：中央一号文件首次提出“推进奶牛产业纾困”，生鲜乳供求关系加快调整

Supply and Demand Analysis - The fresh milk market has experienced a supply-demand imbalance due to overcapacity and increased competition, leading to a continuous decline in average prices[2] - As of February 20, 2025, the average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.10 CNY/kg, indicating a low operating status for dairy farming enterprises[3] - The number of dairy cows has been increasing, with stock levels rising from 10.43 million in 2020 to 11.61 million in 2022, contributing to overproduction[6] Financial Performance of Dairy Farms - The overall profitability of dairy farming enterprises has declined since 2023, with major companies like Modern Farming and China Shengmu reporting losses in 2024[12] - For instance, Modern Farming's net profit dropped from 10.19 million CNY in 2021 to -2.28 million CNY in the first half of 2024[13] - The financial data indicates that profit margins are under pressure, with gross profit margins for major companies like Modern Farming decreasing from 10.35% in 2021 to 4.21% in 2024[13] Market Competition and Structural Changes - The market has seen increased consolidation among large dairy companies, with the top five companies now holding over 60% market share, intensifying competition[7] - Smaller dairy enterprises are struggling to compete, leading to market exits or acquisitions by larger firms[7] Impact of Policy Changes - The Central Document No. 1, issued in February 2025, emphasizes the need to support the dairy industry, indicating government commitment to revitalize the sector[15] - Proposed measures include subsidies and support for integrated dairy farming and processing, which may help alleviate the financial pressures faced by dairy farmers[15] Future Outlook - With the implementation of supportive policies, the supply-demand relationship in the fresh milk market is expected to adjust, potentially stabilizing prices in the long term[16] - However, short-term demand for dairy products may remain low due to previous promotional activities reaching their limits[16]